You have not heard of us, and you are about to be asked for your costs. So here is the whole method first: six formulas, one worked example, and the list of things we refuse to say. If you can redo the arithmetic by hand, you never have to take our word for anything.
1
What is left on one order
discount given = price x discount%
net revenue = price - discount given
fees = net revenue x fee%
refund allowance = refund rate% x (unit cost + shipping)
left per order = net revenue - unit cost - shipping - fees - refund allowance
Sales tax and VAT are never deducted — you collect those for the tax office, so taking them out would make your product look worse than it is.
2
The ROAS this product must hit
break-even ROAS = net revenue / left per order
Every cost you type is one more rung on the ladder, so the number gets worse and truer. A cost you did not type is not on the ladder, and the figure is labelled a floor until it is.
3
Profit per visitor — the number CRO and AOV share
profit per visitor = left per order x conversion rate%
A change that lifts average order value but lowers this is rejected. It is the only figure that moves when you keep more money on the same traffic.
4
The discount ceiling
required net = (unit cost + shipping + refund allowance) / (1 - fee%)
ceiling % = (1 - required net / price) x 100
At or past this percent, the offer is selling your margin instead of your product. Okiela blocks it rather than let you launch it.
5
Where free shipping stops costing you
kept per dollar = (net - unit cost - net x fee%) / net
threshold = shipping you pay / kept per dollar
Below that order value, free delivery comes out of your margin. When your own orders mostly land above the floor, the line is lifted to where a basket actually has to grow.
6
The ceiling on a quantity break
bundle cost = units x per-unit cost + shipping paid once
max discount = highest % where bundle revenue - bundle cost >= left per order
(hard-capped at 40%)Shipping is paid once per order, which is the entire reason a bundle can be cheaper for the buyer and better for you. The 40% cap exists because past that you train buyers to wait for the deal.
7
Shipping you charge against shipping you pay
subsidy per order = shipping you pay - shipping you charge
per month = subsidy per order x orders per month
Charging less for delivery than it costs is a discount you never decided to give. It is left out of no other calculator we could find, and it is the one leak merchants find first.
8
A bundle when a sitewide code is running
bundle discount to type = total ceiling % - sitewide code %
blocked when bundle discount to type < 5%
Buyers apply both. Your ceiling is the total, so the number that goes in the app is the ceiling minus the code — and if that leaves under 5%, we tell you to end the code first instead of launching a bundle nobody notices.
9
Splitting shared costs across a multi-item order
discount and fees -> split by each line's share of order revenue
shipping and parcel -> split by unit count, or charged once per order
per-line result = line revenue - line cost - its share of the above
One order, several products: the order can look profitable while one line inside it loses money. Revenue-share for anything charged on money, unit-share for anything charged per item.
10
Which visitor number you are looking at
product-level = that product's left per order x that product's conversion rate
store-level = store margin per order x store conversion rate
These are two different numbers and we never mix them. A product read tells you what to change on a page; a store read tells you whether the whole shop keeps money.
11
Whether a paid app is worth it
break-even extra per order = app monthly bill / orders per month
orders needed = app monthly bill / proven extra per order
monthly net = proven extra per order x orders - bill
No app uplift is ever assumed. We invert your own numbers: here is what the app must move to cover its bill. If it needs more orders than you get, the answer is no.
12
Detecting a variant that is dragging the product down
variant is a laggard when its left per order < 70% of the product's average
A size or colour with a different supplier cost or a heavier parcel can sit under the average and drag it. We name the variant instead of blaming the product.
What we are allowed to call a result
Seven days after you ship a setting, your own orders answer. These are the only four things that answer is permitted to be.
- Not enough orders yet
- Under 25 orders in the window. A normal week looks exactly like a change at that volume, so we hold the numbers and call nothing.
- Something else moved too
- Enough orders, but a sale, a stockout, a price change, an ad change, a carrier change or a holiday ran in the same window. The difference is real; what caused it is not knowable from this week.
- Provisional
- One clean window with enough orders. A real reading, and still one week — we say provisional out loud rather than let you treat it as settled.
- Settled
- Two clean windows agree. Treat it as your new baseline, leave the setting alone, and move to the next action.