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Every number Okiela shows, and the arithmetic behind it

You have not heard of us, and you are about to be asked for your costs. So here is the whole method first: six formulas, one worked example, and the list of things we refuse to say. If you can redo the arithmetic by hand, you never have to take our word for anything.

Want just one of these numbers?

1

What is left on one order

discount given   = price x discount%
net revenue      = price - discount given
fees             = net revenue x fee%
refund allowance = refund rate% x (unit cost + shipping)
left per order   = net revenue - unit cost - shipping - fees - refund allowance

Sales tax and VAT are never deducted — you collect those for the tax office, so taking them out would make your product look worse than it is.

2

The ROAS this product must hit

break-even ROAS = net revenue / left per order

Every cost you type is one more rung on the ladder, so the number gets worse and truer. A cost you did not type is not on the ladder, and the figure is labelled a floor until it is.

3

Profit per visitor — the number CRO and AOV share

profit per visitor = left per order x conversion rate%

A change that lifts average order value but lowers this is rejected. It is the only figure that moves when you keep more money on the same traffic.

4

The discount ceiling

required net  = (unit cost + shipping + refund allowance) / (1 - fee%)
ceiling %     = (1 - required net / price) x 100

At or past this percent, the offer is selling your margin instead of your product. Okiela blocks it rather than let you launch it.

5

Where free shipping stops costing you

kept per dollar = (net - unit cost - net x fee%) / net
threshold       = shipping you pay / kept per dollar

Below that order value, free delivery comes out of your margin. When your own orders mostly land above the floor, the line is lifted to where a basket actually has to grow.

6

The ceiling on a quantity break

bundle cost   = units x per-unit cost + shipping paid once
max discount  = highest % where bundle revenue - bundle cost >= left per order
                (hard-capped at 40%)

Shipping is paid once per order, which is the entire reason a bundle can be cheaper for the buyer and better for you. The 40% cap exists because past that you train buyers to wait for the deal.

7

Shipping you charge against shipping you pay

subsidy per order = shipping you pay - shipping you charge
per month         = subsidy per order x orders per month

Charging less for delivery than it costs is a discount you never decided to give. It is left out of no other calculator we could find, and it is the one leak merchants find first.

8

A bundle when a sitewide code is running

bundle discount to type = total ceiling % - sitewide code %
blocked when             bundle discount to type < 5%

Buyers apply both. Your ceiling is the total, so the number that goes in the app is the ceiling minus the code — and if that leaves under 5%, we tell you to end the code first instead of launching a bundle nobody notices.

9

Splitting shared costs across a multi-item order

discount and fees  -> split by each line's share of order revenue
shipping and parcel -> split by unit count, or charged once per order
per-line result     = line revenue - line cost - its share of the above

One order, several products: the order can look profitable while one line inside it loses money. Revenue-share for anything charged on money, unit-share for anything charged per item.

10

Which visitor number you are looking at

product-level = that product's left per order x that product's conversion rate
store-level   = store margin per order x store conversion rate

These are two different numbers and we never mix them. A product read tells you what to change on a page; a store read tells you whether the whole shop keeps money.

11

Whether a paid app is worth it

break-even extra per order = app monthly bill / orders per month
orders needed              = app monthly bill / proven extra per order
monthly net                = proven extra per order x orders - bill

No app uplift is ever assumed. We invert your own numbers: here is what the app must move to cover its bill. If it needs more orders than you get, the answer is no.

12

Detecting a variant that is dragging the product down

variant is a laggard when its left per order < 70% of the product's average

A size or colour with a different supplier cost or a heavier parcel can sit under the average and drag it. We name the variant instead of blaming the product.

The same maths on one real product

This is the example the check screen holds before you type. Replace the first five lines with your own numbers and the last four recalculate.

Price the customer pays
$49.00
What one unit costs you
$18.00
Shipping you pay per order
$6.00
Card and platform fee
2.9% + $0.30 (Shopify published rate)
Orders refunded or returned
4%
Fees on this order
$1.72
Refund allowance
$0.96
Left per order
$22.32
Break-even ROAS
2.20x

Safe is not the same as best

Margin-safe
The arithmetic proves this cannot cost you margin. It is a floor and a ceiling, not a prediction that buyers will respond.
Not the same as optimal
Okiela will not tell you the best price, discount or threshold — that needs a result from your own orders. It tells you the range inside which you cannot lose, and then reads what your buyers did.

What we are allowed to call a result

Seven days after you ship a setting, your own orders answer. These are the only four things that answer is permitted to be.

Not enough orders yet
Under 25 orders in the window. A normal week looks exactly like a change at that volume, so we hold the numbers and call nothing.
Something else moved too
Enough orders, but a sale, a stockout, a price change, an ad change, a carrier change or a holiday ran in the same window. The difference is real; what caused it is not knowable from this week.
Provisional
One clean window with enough orders. A real reading, and still one week — we say provisional out loud rather than let you treat it as settled.
Settled
Two clean windows agree. Treat it as your new baseline, leave the setting alone, and move to the next action.

How we split the costs of an order with several items

A real order is rarely one unit of one product. The moment there are two lines, three costs stop belonging to any single product. These are the rules we use everywhere — split them the other way and a product looks profitable because its neighbour quietly carried its parcel.

  • Cart discount (a code on the whole order) → split by what each line sold for

    A 10% code takes 10% off every line. Shopify splits it by what each line sold for, so we do too.

  • Payment and platform fee → split by what each line sold for

    The processor charges a percent of the order total, so each line owes its share of that total.

  • Shipping you pay → split by number of units

    Your 3PL bills per item picked and the carrier bills by weight. Neither cares what the item sold for — so splitting shipping by revenue blames your expensive product for a cheap product's parcel.

A cost you did not type is not allocated at all. Missing stays missing.

What Okiela will never do

  • We never invent an uplift, a conversion lift or a revenue increase. Not one number on this site is a forecast.
  • We never use an industry average or a benchmark conversion rate as your input.
  • A cost you did not type is blank, never zero — and the verdict says so out loud.
  • A store-wide (blended) ROAS gets no verdict against one product's break-even. We give you the floor and refuse the call.
  • We never claim a discount code or an exclusive deal we do not have. Where an app has a real free tier, we say exactly what it covers.
  • We are not paid to name any app, and on the day that changes it will say so on the same screen.
  • No score out of 100. A score hides the arithmetic; the arithmetic is the product.

If you ever connect your store

  • Connecting is optional. The full verdict works with no account and no store connection.
  • Read-only, four scopes: products, inventory, orders, reports. Nothing is ever written back.
  • We read three things: cost per item, orders, and sessions. Never customer names, emails, addresses or payout data.
  • Disconnect any time in Shopify admin → Settings → Apps → Okiela → Delete. Access ends instantly.